The Acadia statement below is said to be the principal reason for the recent share price plunge[excludes US markets issues]:
"The momentum in Q2 was encouraging, however the net rate of patient additions in Q2 was slower than expected, which has caused Acadia to update its guidance for net sales in 2024 to US$340-370 million (lower and narrower than the previous range of US$370-420 million"
Acadia providing revenue guidance from the get go for a new drug to market has never made sense to me.An unfavourable revenue guidance based on only 30% of the potential patents having accessed the drug virtually guarantees a decent share price downward reaction.This revised revenue guidance was necessary on the basis that:
*Midpoint to midpoint of the above revised range is $40M or about 10% revenue miss-not a big discrepancy for a new drug.
*Revenue this quarter was up compared to the previous quarter.
*The net rate of patient additions was slower than than expected yet patient side effects of Daybue therapy [including drop-outs-discontiuations etc] were reported as being better managed for improved patient outcomes.
*Daybue nearest competitor product[proposed by Anavex Life Sciences] failed clinical trials in early 2024.
*Revenue from the Canada Daybue approval is not totally out of the question
*The product is frightfully expensive yet payers appear to be on board with too much resistance
The bottom line-Acadia met/exceeded its corporate revenue targets.The damage caused to the Neuren share price by the above revised guidance seems unwarranted and could be seen as deliberate.
Kens
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