I can only surmise that smart money may be aware of something...

I can only surmise that smart money may be aware of something retail is not. Where there is smoke...

After reading about the impact of the IRA and how it was changing the pricing of drugs in the news over the last day or two I was wondering the same thing. With the share price falling I felt there may be something up. Especially, when you read this clause about the IRA after searching on GPT:

Orphan drugs approved for a single rare disease are exempt from Medicare price negotiations under the IRA. This aims to incentivize the development of treatments for rare diseases by maintaining higher pricing power for these drugs

but

If a drug gains approval for additional indications, it loses its orphan drug exemption and becomes subject to Medicare price negotiations. This policy has raised concerns within the pharmaceutical industry that it could deter companies from pursuing additional uses for their orphan drugs, as they would then face pricing restrictions that could limit their financial return.

The professor and Hottod addressed this issue in their conversation in another thread earlier in the year, they said, the IRA threat wouldn't apply to Neuren because its audience would be covered under Medicare, not Medicaid - which is for the oldies. I still wanted to put this concern to bed because I wondered if something had changed so I kept searching. Medicare does cover younger adults (under 65 lol) with disabilities and neurological conditions including rare diseases but nowhere near the extent of Medicaid.

I got referred to the 'blue book' which outlines the conditions which come under Medicare including neurological conditions but to cut a long story short Neuren's 2591 drugs won't be affected.

Even if Neuren was threatened, there is the EPIC Act which is a bipartisan bill put forward to address the issue of a drug like 2591 losing its revenue-gathering power by treating more than one indication. For example, Neuren would only develop 2591 for PMS and charge a pretty penny and not bother with PH because as soon as PH comes into play, the IRA can subject 2591 to a new lower pricing schedule, which is detrimental if you were a PH sufferer because a company may not even bother with pursuing the second indication. The bipartisan aspect of the bill shows it is likely to pass pretty easily and rectify this unintended consequence.

At least my concerns were allayed (I should have just listened to Hottod and the Prof!). So, I don't think retail is missing anything, and while I write this, Director Basile buys another lot of shares in a short period - the smart money is buying. I see that as a clear signal to all of us to keep the faith, and to tell us, all is well.