NEU 0.07% $15.13 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

It's a painful watch right now and I agree with some here the...

  1. 484 Posts.
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    It's a painful watch right now and I agree with some here the main driver is likely from money shifting out whilst the good news story of Daybue has lost some shine and 2591 is a long way from completing a Phase 3 and really putting itself on a pedestal. I guess if you take a look at the financials, whilst 2024 will still bring in well north of $100 million it is down on last year. Then 2025 starts to look lean if sales grow slowly and the $500 million milestone is not hit. The only big chunk of income outside royalties would then come from the PRV sale which is not guaranteed anytime. Canada should help but is small and ROW is more for 2026. So whilst still in no way running out of money Neuren will enter a period where the revenues dwindle and the costs escalate (assuming they start one or more Phase 3s) and cash on hand goes down. So by holding on you're taking a bet on the trial/s being successful or a TO offer. It could be a hard watch if this plays out over 3 years with the potential of minimal SP improvement building to much nervousness about any Phase 3 outcome. But in that time I would expect to at least get to more than $500 million USD for Daybue, the PRV sale, ROW starting, more hype on 2591 with possible future indications announced and to be considered by any potential buyer. I'm up for that ride and I would find it very hard to stomach selling out now and missing out if that trading halt comes along with the first genuine buyout put forward. So it might be rough for a while but I can't imagine there will be any forewarning to get back in when someone wants this new drug with so much potential.
 
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