Why haven't we seen any TO offers before now? Probably because...

Why haven't we seen any TO offers before now? Probably because potential suitors were told to wait until after this FDA meeting.

This begs the question: Why would a hostile acquirer do as they are told and wait until after the FDA meeting when the share price and confidence in the masses is low at the moment? They certainly would not want any confidence-boosting events, such as positive undisclosed indications, to be announced to the market. Wouldn't a hostile move be happening now? What does the fact it is not happening now tell someone?

If the sequence of events in the next month or so doesn't play out in the shareholder's favour and Neuren is all by its lonesome heading into Phase 3 then it would indicate a lack of desire and competition for 2591 so it will then be ripe for a hostile takeover as confidence and patience will be through the floorboards. If this eventuates, we might all get a 100% premium and get something like $22 which nearly all of us have had already - the disappointment will be palpable for a few, but for others, they will be justifiably content with it being over.

Even though Phase III is doable, it is the last option on the plan for management in my view, so the odds of Neuren being around by Xmas are very low. If by some miracle, nothing happens over the next few months maybe Neuren can start selling itself to the public by getting some advertising at the airport to boost the share price...

I have put my money where my mouth is in the last few days and may go again as I see this as an opportunity I may never get again but that is just my read on events. Each to their own in fascinating times.