Share Price, page-12229

Hi I am new posting here, was a very early NEU shareholder (@12c) as sold to buy a house and recently started small amount buying again.

I am surprised by some of the takeover comments here. I even worked in M&A for 10 years. For biotech/pharma the value is in the mystery plus the known. The known is often a set amount of cash and people's minds/patents and if you're lucky a given drug with a life, many posted about this above. But it is alot cheaper to license a proven drug from a company than to buy it outright, or create one. Have a look at the share register, to do a takeout would be tricky without multiple agreements and a stand in the market, better paths exist. The mystery or the pipeline depends on ones views. Everyone will have a differing one. Trying to understand or value drugs that do not exist is tricky. The NEU pipeline could be worth billions, or not. The latest FDA meeting I would think is highly positive step. The amount of relatively small cap pharmas bringing a drug all way thru to P3 is few. Because it is very expensive and risky, equally the payoff is massive. The same applies to sectors like oil exploration.

NEU now has the capacity to do that itself and could have 3 drugs in a couple of years each making hundreds of millions a year, plus Daybue. If they can pull that off the company would be making $500m+ plus a year and the company value would be north of $6b. If you think that is the path, strap on in or double down. If you think the discount rate on that path is say >35% you may be indifferent, or if don't believe it or even parts of it then it depends on what you do believe as to whether to exit.

That being said, as has been mentioned here Arcadia has been hammered in the Nasdaq, due to some limited stories over daybue from 6 months ago. For others that drug seems to be working well. Is NEU worth more than $15, most likely yes. Indeed it is relatively easy to make assumptions to get to $30+ a share. Gosh I bought in again at $18. Equally for others it is easy to say it is worth sub $15, at least for next year or so.

A big fund manager Milford has been selling a large block over 5% of the company this last year after buying in around $8 as well as Cupler's views so small retail investors views don't really matter, sit tight if are a believer.