NEU (ASX) Share Price

Originally posted by baldwidx: ↑

Team - I think we all just need calm heads. Nothing negative has happened to warrant this depreciation and the fundamentals are still extremely strong.

There are lots of factors at play but a few main ones in my view and they largely relate to certainty.

1. There is a hard deadline for when the SBB will/can occur and therefore certainty - people will make money while they can, its only natural. If this situation was reversed and you knew for a fact you were going to have a positive announcement on 2 December, you would BACK THE TRUCK UP!! This is no different, they know the date, they know the outcome, they have certainty and are taking advantage of it. This will turn the corner early/mid next week as they try to lock in their profit before they get torched.

2. There is a lack of certainty around the future for the company. That is not a negative as such and there is certainly no lack of certainty amongst the majority here when it comes to understanding what we have. There is however uncertainty over the P3 endpoints and the undisclosed indications. There is uncertainty around the size, cost, endpoints and duration of the P3 trials. Certainty of duration is the big one in my view, as people will bet this is a few years off maturing and place their money elsewhere in the meantime. If you are a good investor, why wouldn't you? I am not a good investor at all and I am true believer in NEU (part of the >$15b USD crowd), and even I have told my wife not to buy NEU shares in her super, not when she made >22% from July to now in her currenty Super Fund - there are just better options out there in the short term.

Of course, you run the risk of missing the boat and while its absolutely not impossible, it is highly unlikely that a TO offer wont materialise until we get confirmation on all the above and while I love the enthusiasm from JP, its likely we won't have that confirmation until the new year.

Beyond that, there is uncertainty around when Canada sales start, when EU approval will actually happen etc.

3. Like it or not, there is also uncertainty about the outcome of the P3 trials. I think the majority here are fairly certain how it will play out but we have not had a placebo-controlled study to confirm beyond doubt that 2591 works. While many here have made solid arguments in support of the statistical validity/strength of the P2 results and the likelihood that they are not random, we have to remember that we are true believers and many are not, many are just out to make a buck and don't see this as a good opportunity just yet, at least not while uncertainty remains.

4. Lastly, the ASX is a fairly rudimentary exchange from what I gather, and the market is not valuing us on the uncertainty of a potential blockbusting drug
- they are valuing us on the certainty of our revenue, which is still small when you exclude the milestone payments. Even the sales of Daybue have been inconsistent, albeit much better than more highly valued competitors. If you are a hardnosed investor and not sentimental about this, there are likely better short-term options - presuming there is no TO.

I have said this before on the forum, I love a tin foil hat and I could be totally wrong about the above - this could be being manipulated heavily given the once in a generation product we have. Its entirely possible!! But I can't get past Occam's Razor without any good evidence and that has played out historically with this stock - it never really kicked in the past until there was absolute certainty - positive P3 results for Trofinetide, approval from the FDA etc.

Its always been a slow burn and always been undervalued. That will change but not easily and not quickly. But it will change in my view.

I know others will disagree but this SP action is absolutely brilliant in my opinion - I am backing up the truck and going to try and scrounge everything I can for one last fill-up before the SBB becomes a live option and the SP almost certainly heads north...

Expand

I don't disagree with your general thesis. But I do think the comments (from you and others) about all the 'future uncertainties' are overblown.

The future is uncertain for any company - by definition. If you want certainty put your money in the bank.

What's important is how big the uncertainties are, and for Neuren they're way at the low end. Who cares what month the Canada sales start, what matters is that they WILL start.

If potential investors or acquirers are waiting until all future uncertainties are resolved before buying - well, they're never going to buy anything.

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	982	$16.60

No.

Vol.

Price($)

982

$16.60

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$16.66	1000	1

Price($)

Vol.

No.

$16.66

1000

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	982	16.600
1	60	16.550
5	11099	16.500
1	60	16.490
1	200	16.470

No.

Vol.

Price($)

982

16.600

16.550

11099

16.500

16.490

200

16.470

Price($)	Vol.	No.
16.660	1000	1
16.740	2114	2
16.750	982	2
16.800	703	1
16.890	175	2

Price($)

Vol.

No.

16.660

1000

16.740

2114

16.750

982

16.800

703

16.890

175

(20min delay)
Last $16.63		Change -0.070(0.42%)		Mkt cap ! $2.095B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$16.68	$16.86	$16.51	$4.012M	240.7K

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