Personally, new indications probably wouldn't add much value for now as the market will not value too much for pre-clinic indications, imo. Three phase 2 assets are currently progressing to the phase 3 trials where the potential is especially PMS (as NEU is the most advanced development/trial, currently No approved drug in the world; and the market size of PMS is around 3 times of Rett Sydrome/DAYBUE). Especially a similar market size as DAYBUE, SKYCLARYS/Reata was acquired for US$7.3B in 2023, so even at the Phase 3 trial, NEU's PMS phase 3 trial asset should worth a lot, my guess, at least US$1B.
DAYBUE is currently generating annual royalties of ~$65m-$70m just for US market alone.
European market, say next year (early access may happen in late 2025); annual royalties should easily exceed $100m.
Global annual royalties from DAYBUE, might be over $120m, imo.
There are still milestone payments for DAYBUE up to US$713m. Based on my estimates, around US$190m are relatively easy to meet, further US$152m are relatively hard to meet (i.e. U.S sales fetches US$500m for US$100m milestone payment).
I believe DAYBUE alone should worth $12/share.
Type C meeting in early April for PMS trial, should be next catalyst, imo.
All imo.
NEU Price at posting:
$12.33 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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