This big push down is perhaps makes sense.
We are coming close to the pointy end of things. Jon said previously they wouldn't consider any takeover offers until end points were agreed with FDA. That is just a month away. Neuren has also been wrapping up a nice package for suitors (e.g recent research suggesting size of PMD is much larger than previously indicated). I suspect they will soon announce the rest of the additional indications too so everything is on the table.
So, if you were wanting to make a lowball $30 offer (that would undervalue Neuren 10x in my opinion), then now is the time to push down aggressively so your offer looks really attractive.
UBS working for baker brothers is my guess - roll Neuren into Acadia and they have a USD100 billion future exit on their books.
In theory such a strategy should fail completely as Neuren appears to hold all the cards - give them the finger and continue to move towards becoming an AUD60 billion company in their own right in 3-4 years.
UBS must be losing money hand over fist buying high and selling low and will eventually get their shorts burnt.
So the big question is what leverage Acadia/Baker Bros have over Neuren that makes such a short term losing strategy worth pursuing?
(20min delay)