in this chaotic market who knows what is going to see strong...

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05/04/25

13:05

Post #: 78567062
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Originally posted by Eagle0: ↑

I'm probably suffering confirmation bias given I was a previous shareholder of Clinvuel, but Clinuvel's share price has been totally controlled by shorts of the past several years and when an event hits like what happened with the tariffs recently its my view that the shorts will take advantage of the general downturn in the markets and push the sp further down to profit on their short bets.

I tend to believe this is what's happening with NEU right now, also if you figure in the upcoming FDA meeting which could finalise the endpoints and give the green light to start the trial mid-year then the current macro conditions lends itself to capitalising on those short profits and getting in before this happens.

I never thought we'd see sub-$10 again, especially with all the success Neuren has had over the past 24 months. It defies logic that we should be here, unless you have a sinister motive or reason to benefit from a lower share price. By any comparison with other biotechs with similar successes Neuren must be an outlier regarding sp performance. Stateside companies on average see higher valuations with less favourable assets and financial metrics, Opthea was valued more than Neuren last year operating on the sniff of an oily rag!

Regarding future sp performance, something Jon said about commencing the Phase 3 trial which has puzzled me a bit (if I understood him correctly) was he thinks there will be significant uplift from the trial once it's underway. Is it anyone else's understanding that an initiation of a Phase 3 trial should equate to a significant uplift in the sp? OR was he referring to an eventual approval which clearly should result in a significant uplift?

A lot of emphasis from Jon and here has been placed on finalising the Phase 3 trial design, specifically that Neuren wouldn't entertain any offers until after this Phase 3 trial design is confirmed and underway. The question I'm asking is why should that matter when there is no surety that the trial would succeed? (I'm sure it will but just being devil's advocate). How does this event translate to an improvement in Neuren's negotiating position when the trial is not even finished let alone begun?

Just some things I've been thinking about, I can't wait for the trial endpoints to be finalised and the trial underway but I'm not sure why I should be placing so much hope in this event when we are yet to see the outcome of this trial.

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in this chaotic market who knows what is going to see strong demand and appreciation of NEU.
I guess the announcement of end points gives certainty as to start time of Ph3 trial and outlook for the other indications Ph3 trials. This then sets a reasonablely predictable timetable for results and if successful tome to market. These should enable analysts to sharpen theor models and provide a higher valuation. To be seen.

NEU Price at posting: $9.86 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $16.63		Change -0.070(0.42%)		Mkt cap ! $2.095B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$16.68	$16.86	$16.51	$4.012M	240.7K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	982	$16.60

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$16.66	1000	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	982	16.600
1	60	16.550
5	11099	16.500
1	60	16.490
1	200	16.470

Price($)	Vol.	No.
16.660	1000	1
16.740	2114	2
16.750	982	2
16.800	703	1
16.890	175	2

Last trade - 16.10pm 30/07/2025 (20 minute delay)

NEU (ASX) Chart

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in this chaotic market who knows what is going to see strong...

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