Anything under $15b
USD is a steal and an enormous failure on the part of management in my humble opinion.
People can argue over whether Biogen paid 'overs' for Reata but for argument's sake, if you assume they paid fair value, then how could it not be worth much more?
Assuming Retts and Friedrich's Ataxia are an excellent like for like - which is not just speculation from me - its commentary from JP, if you take the upper bands of the potential patient numbers published in the 2023 Annual Report you see that:
- PMS ranges from 2 to 3.5 times the number of Rett's patients globally.
- Pitt Hopkins has extremely similar global potential patient numbers to Retts, so for the sake of argument, say it has the same number.
- Angelman's has 2.7 times the number of global potential patients that Retts.
If the numbers are accurate then you are looking at somewhere between 5.7 - 7.2 times the number of Retts patients, in those conditions alone. If we decide to revisit PWS then we can add another Angleman's size potential patient cohort.
I know its not as simple as saying that "x" patients = $, so "y" patients = $$$ but the simple comparison is instructive. Based on the Reata acquisition, you could make an argument (rightly or wrongly) Neuren could be worth between $41b
USDand $51.84b
USD, all things being equal and discarding PWS for the time being.
If you want to get crazy, throw HIE into the mix and you are looking at a totally different ball game that has a replenishing patient cohort every year. Gemini says that there are between 9k and 12k patients in the USA each year and between 180k and 3.2m patients RoW. For ease, lets just say global numbers are the same as RoW.
In the USA alone, HIE is almost identical in size to Retts and not as a total patient cohort, rather as a new, annually replenishing patient cohort. Globally, the numbers are beyond astronomical and range from somewhere between 4 and 70 times the potential Retts patient population, so looking at possibly $28.8b
USD and $504b
USD,
using Reata valuations
.
Wrap them all up and you are looking at ~70b
USD all the way up to ~$555b
USD, using Reata's valuation as a guide.
I know there will be discounts applied as the value increases. I know there is not a direct comparison that can be made that says Skyclaris = $x, so 2591 = 10-70x that. I know that a DCF will be used to calculate value. I know and understand the realities.
I also know what the potential value is here and am not blind to it or intimidated by it just because it seems so far removed from our current reality. The potential value, not just in the above conditions but with others is astronomical and think its managements job to get us as close to 10x Reata as possible and not give away this IP below fair value.
(20min delay)