With the quarterly out today and all things being equal (expenditures remaining the same for now while the trials spool up), I'd guesstimate Neuren would have close to $AUD 41-42 million cash in bank now. I'm intrigued by the prospect of a potential special dividend being paid out due to the windfall of revenue coming shortly, and tbh I'd very much appreciate the cash in hand. I was weighing up whether it will be possible for Neuren to develop at least one indication through Phase 3 to approval. I'd be pleasantly surprised if Neuren or a potential partner were able to start a Phase 3 trial for any indication in 2023 (if any company could do it it would be Neuren, they are very driven in their clinical program). But with these escalating milestone payments and double digit royalties I came to the conclusion it would be possible at some time in 2024 where Neuren may be able to fully develop an indication on their own i.e conduct a self financed Phase 3 trial.
In the next step after approval Neuren would have a lot of work on their hands in setting up administration and sales forces etc to market the drug, but alternatively Neuren could contract a service provider like Cardinal to assist in most areas of the enterprise. Cardinal would skim their cut off the top, but Cardinal's reach in the US medical landscape is far reaching and the profitability to Neuren would be much more than partnering with another pharma. I think the risk is worth it if Neuren tackles one indication while they partner to develop the other indications. It would probably be a stretch to think Neuren could develop two indications independently unless they decided to list in the US and seek additional capital in that financial market. I acknowledge there's a high amount of risk in doing this, it could potentially be a concerning situation if Neuren spent a large portion of their revenues from trofinetide towards developing an NNZ-2591 indication and were unsuccessful, but I would not deem it to be an existential threat. Shareholder ire would be elevated no doubt.
I'd love to get my hands on a juicy special dividend, but at the same time I think I'd be prepared to wait a little while longer to see Neuren go through a Phase 3 trial. Perhaps if Neuren paid a smaller annual dividend to keep shareholders satiated until the other indications are hopefully approved, that might be agreeable to some shareholders here.
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