Share Price, page-273

To advoid $645m milestone payments and Royalty on sales payments, Acadia is better off taking over NEU, imo.

Acadia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ACAD) is conducting and funding the trials, but Neuren is eligible to receive milestone payments of up to US$455 million (AU$645 million). Neuren is also eligible for royalties on trofinetide sales if the drug is approved by the FDA.

Karst Peak Capital biotech analyst Hashan De Silva said: “We believe that Neuren’s shares are significantly undervalued at these levels, with the upside largely de-risked following the phase three results of trofinetide. Acadia forecasts peak sales of $US500 million for the Rett indication alone and only in the US market.
“Assuming a 12 per cent royalty, Neuren would receive [around] $85 million in royalties from Acadia which have a 100 per cent EBIT margin. This income stream alone should be worth over $1 billion using a modest multiple.”