NEU

3.15%

$21.27 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

Giarc63, an excellent post and one that reflects my thoughts to...

First 4179 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Mbox

53 Posts.

55

18/03/23

08:40

Post #: 66835682
Share

Originally posted by giarc63: ↑

So - with such rapid growth occuring with our company - the major question on everyones minds now becomes is this sustainable? We have the TT and Snozzs (Captain Questionaire) ... of this world trying to undermine the potential of the company and the former shorting it with very little reasoning at all.

I believe the growth and increasing share price will continue. All you have to do is study and watch the presentation made by Jon earlier this week.
There are at least 5000 known patients in the USA and over 10,000 potential patients for Retts.
If just 1/3 of the known patients (1335) take on DAYBUE and it works for them on-going then that is a substantial amount of money for Neuren at the lower end of this huge deal.

We are in line for the following (based on lower to average sales or DAYBUE i.e Sales of $500 million per annum based on 1335 x 375k)
US $40m when the first sale of trofinetide is made
US $33m when the priority reveiw
US $100m in milestone payments PER ANNUM
US $55 in royalty payments paid quarterly PER ANNUM

So - that is AUD $100m in the next 6 months for the initial two payments and from there on AUD $18m per quarter and AUD $130m per annum once 1335 patients take on trofinetide in the USA.

So, if the average to lower expectations for trofinetide come to pass - Neuren gets AUD $150 million per annum from the USA alone.

A lot of that money will go to bringing NNZ2591 to market. But the potential in just the 4 areas already being targetted for that drug is 5 times the numbers for Retts. 5 x150 million is another 750 million.

Now, that is without any income from Rest of the World for all the above.

Simple calculation is that this company is heading to turning over more than $1 billion dollars in revenue PER ANNUM, and potentially much much more than that.

These are pure and simple numbers above.
Shorting Neuren knowing the above numbers is madness.

Then there is all the evidence about the science, making shorting Neuren utter and complete madness.

Well done to everyone that kept all their shares along the way so far.
Look them away now, as they are now worth more than ever.
Buy more if you can afford it.

Expand

Giarc63, an excellent post and one that reflects my thoughts to a large extent. Been with NEU for a long time (since 2007) and the FDA approval is just the first chapter in a long and exciting story.

One correction though. The milestone payments as set out in the NEU announcement on Tuesday are one-offs. They are not repeated annually (or ever). If Arcadia's sales hit more than one milestone in any 12-month period, all milestones for that period are payable. However, each milestone is only payable once.

Hottod provided a link to the Arcadia/Neuren Licence Agreement on another thread a few days ago. The Licence Agreement is crystal clear on that point.

Cheers.

NEU Price at posting: $13.23 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
9 Upvote

1 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Microcap Wrap: 5 explorers with news out today

SS1

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

LU7

Lithium Universe (ASX:LU7) board visits Quebec to engage key stakeholders

LRV

Larvotto identifies new exploration target at NSW's Hillgrove, boosting shares by nearly 20%

Week 26 Wrap: Cerberus of inflation barks – rents, electricity & fuel – and world watches two elders bicker

SVL

Silver Mines models five new calderas close to 396Moz Bowdens deposit

RCE

Recce's R327 found effective against E.coli during clinical trial

Wealth Within weighs in on shock 4% inflation read – and stocks that could survive the gloom

AVA

Ava Risk Group expands US presence with A$0.7M Substation Deal

CMX

ChemX Materials kicks off first stage works at WA high purity alumina pilot

There are more pages in this discussion • 6,596 more messages in this thread...

First 4179 Last

Add NEU (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last $21.27		Change 0.650(3.15%)		Mkt cap ! $2.718B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$20.84	$21.56	$20.76	$7.760M	364.5K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1378	$21.24

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$21.29	218	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	200	21.240
1	47	21.150
1	500	20.860
1	240	20.800
1	50	20.630

Price($)	Vol.	No.
21.300	12763	1
21.350	30	1
21.380	471	1
21.410	25	1
21.500	60	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

NEU (ASX) Chart

Giarc63, an excellent post and one that reflects my thoughts to...

Microcap Wrap: 5 explorers with news out today

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

Lithium Universe (ASX:LU7) board visits Quebec to engage key stakeholders

Larvotto identifies new exploration target at NSW's Hillgrove, boosting shares by nearly 20%

Week 26 Wrap: Cerberus of inflation barks – rents, electricity & fuel – and world watches two elders bicker

Silver Mines models five new calderas close to 396Moz Bowdens deposit

Recce's R327 found effective against E.coli during clinical trial

Wealth Within weighs in on shock 4% inflation read – and stocks that could survive the gloom

Ava Risk Group expands US presence with A$0.7M Substation Deal

ChemX Materials kicks off first stage works at WA high purity alumina pilot

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Giarc63, an excellent post and one that reflects my thoughts to...

Top Stories

Microcap Wrap: 5 explorers with news out today

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

Lithium Universe (ASX:LU7) board visits Quebec to engage key stakeholders

Larvotto identifies new exploration target at NSW's Hillgrove, boosting shares by nearly 20%

Week 26 Wrap: Cerberus of inflation barks – rents, electricity & fuel – and world watches two elders bicker

Silver Mines models five new calderas close to 396Moz Bowdens deposit

Recce's R327 found effective against E.coli during clinical trial

Wealth Within weighs in on shock 4% inflation read – and stocks that could survive the gloom

Ava Risk Group expands US presence with A$0.7M Substation Deal

ChemX Materials kicks off first stage works at WA high purity alumina pilot

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News