Yes - its seems rather obvious (at least to me) that if NNZ-2591 proves its promise then Neuren, as the worldwide IP holder (which Acadia is not) will end up being worth alot more than Acadia.
I've always thought it made little sense to think Acadia will be able to buy Neuren.
Unless, that is, someone like Baker Bros tips many extra billions into Acadia and then uses Acadia as a vehicle for a cash plus shares offer to buyout Neuren and end up with a listing for the combined company on the US sharemarket. That sort of outcome has always made a lot of sense to me, and even more sense now after the latest deal.
Getting a large chunk of cash (e.g. AU$2.5 billion) plus exposure to the ongoing development and success of NNZ-2591 via the US sharemarket sounds like an ideal outcome to me, and also to the Neuren team I'd think - who would still be involved ongoing in developing NNZ-2591. Why would Jon and his team want to sell out completely and walk away from this exciting journey. The many comments Jon has made about how much Neuren likes and is impressed by the Acadia team suggests to me the idea of working long term with Acadia is an idea they like alot.
After a cash + shares buyout of Neuren, Baker Bros would then provide Acadia with another $1 billion cash to fund 5 simultaneous Phase 3 trials (i.e. including Fragile-X). Then in 3-4 years once these trials all come in positive (best case!) Acadia is bought out by a large pharma for $50-$100 billion so they can develop NNZ-2591 for another 50 neurodevelopment diseases AND the enormous neurodegenerative disease market. Perhaps 25% of this goes to Neuren shareholders who now hold Acadia shares. Total return about $100-$250 a share to Neuren original shareholders. Baker Bros has also converted their $8 billion from Seagen into perhaps $30-$50 billion after another 4-5 years - which would make them very happy too I'd think.
That's the cake and eat it scenario I dream about.
NEU Price at posting:
$14.20 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)