$50 may look a long way from $11, but $11 is also a long way...

$50 may look a long way from $11, but $11 is also a long way from $1, which is where we were exactly 3 years ago.

I remember the same sentiments expressed then - how could $8 a share be sensible when we're at $1?

The future share price won't care what today's share price is - it will be based upon Neuren's enterprise value and IP value at that point in time. If this means we'll do another 10x share price increase to get to the right spot, then that should happen.

The good thing is Neuren management are in a position to give a finger to the ASX in the meantime.

If NNZ-2591 does come up positive in all 4 trials then this makes a strong case for 100 other neuro-development and neurodegenerative disorders (autism, multiple sclerosis, alzheimers, stroke, parkinsons, traumatic brain injury, etc,). Considering the enormous size of these markets and the fact none have any good treatments today its hard not to conclude that NNZ-2591 could become one of the most valuable drugs in history.

If that's truly the potential, then Neuren running dozens of simultaneous Ph 3 trials certainly doesn't sound sensible - its something for big Pharma. But hell, this potential will be worth many times $50 a share.

Outlandish speculation? If you read the material from Neuren over the last 15 years, the published research papers on NNZ-2591, and chief scientist Larry Glass's many interviews you'll see this has been Neuren's end game all along.

5-6 orphan diseases was never the goal. Neuren chose these simply because they're a faster way to get runs on the board. They're 'proof-of-concept' for the main targets. The real value is a patient market 1,000 times larger. Neuren has already laid ground work for this (check out their patent portfolio and other Ph 1 studies they've done). Perhaps we've just forgotten about this with the recent, temporary, focus on orphan drugs.

Am sure Neuren management haven't forgotten.