Share Price, page-8691

now for some economic assumptions:

Discounted Cash Flow Model for Neuren Pharmaceuticals LTD
	Assumptions:		Base Case - Licence out all development and marketting of NNZ2591
	no of shares on issue:		130,000,000	fully diluted	from Jun30 '23 half yr report
	Cash Costs			annual $k	from 3rd Qtr 4C report Sept '23
	Staff & corporate:		1,772	7,000
	R&D		4,989	20,000
	Accumulated Losses$k			70,880	from Jun30 '23 half yr report
	Tax rate:		30%
	annual escalation of staff & corporate costs:				20%
	R&D costs based on		20%	of previous year's net cash flow			to maximum of		$50	m per year
	discount rate:		12%
		Trofinetide				USA			milestone payments:		royalty rates
										$m US	published data
		Retts Syndrome					first commercial sale			40	10.0%
		max number of patients in US			4500		sales >250m pa			50	12.0%
		growth per qtr			250		sales > 500mpa			50	14.0%
		revenue per patient $US pa			350000		sales > 750m pa			100	15.0%
							sales > 1,000m pa			150	15.0%
						Rest of World			assumed to be similar to Trof in USA with Acadia
									milestone payments:		royalty rates
										$m US
		max number of patients in RoW			12000		first commercial sale			50	15.0%
		growth per qtr			400		sales >250m pa			50	17.5%
		revenue per patient $US pa			200000		sales > 500mpa			50	20.0%
							sales > 750m pa			100	22.5%
							sales > 1,000m pa			150	22.5%
		NNZ - 2591
		Phelan McDermid Syndrome					Pitt Hopkins Syndrome					Angelman Syndrome					Prader-Willi Syndrome
		max number of patients in US			24000		max number of patients in US			6000		max number of patients in US			16000		max number of patients in US			16000
		growth per qtr			250		growth per qtr			250		growth per qtr			250		growth per qtr			250
		revenue per patient $US pa			350000		revenue per patient $US pa			350000		revenue per patient $US pa			350000		revenue per patient $US pa			350000
		1st sales in USA			Q2 '28		1st sales in USA			Q1 '29		1st sales in USA			Q2 '29		1st sales in USA			Q2 '29
								Milestone payments:		$m US	Royalty rates
							upfront licence payment:			100
							first commercial sale			50	15.0%
							sales >250m pa			50	17.5%
							sales > 500mpa			50	20.0%
							sales > 750m pa			100	22.5%
							sales > 1,000m pa			150	22.5%