I like that analysis .... but ....
Although it may be reckless, gut-wise I have the probability of success for the upcoming PM result at over 90% - (gut says: 2591 preclinical results superior than those for Trof; Trof produced three P2 successes with just one failure and that could reasonably be ascribed to too low a dosing level; Trof went on to P3 success in Retts; PM trial is unblinded and company oozes confidence; Acadia's interest in 2591.)
If these points were assigned a score and then compared with similar positive pre-result pointers from other past neurological P2 trials, I would highly doubt that many (if any) would approach 2591's score. (For those who get what and why my gut is telling me.)
Not proof positive, but it sure suits my risk/reward tolerance.
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