RED 2.90% 33.5¢ red 5 limited

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    beatle - regarding your post at top of thread.

    this sent me digging into the NPV ..my model is about same as theirs at POG $US1,000... the NPV per share is 21c and +2c for cash on hand now =23c

    one thing i discovered from going over the NPV was that they used a discount rate of 8%. this seemed very liberal to me given the nature of mining projects, notwithstanding that the co. has done high quality job & de-risked it. it seems to me that the market has done the same calc.s using 15%, a somewhat more conservative number, which explains the 15c SP, which is what it comes out with using 15%.

    So we may see a period of consolidation here.

    but the eps is nowhere near numbers you quote. i get 2.1c Yr1 rising to high of 6.3c Yr4. as the number of shares on issue will be 949m.

    i agree that comparing to other recent cash positive producing miners CXG, MML we will eventually see a further re-rating above their PE ratio to recognise some asset value in ground reserves and blue sky..


 
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