share target price, page-3

Lads

Bioshares have a valuation of $3.95 on Acrux this morning! In line with the $3.50 plus valuation I mooted last week. The rationale behind it seems sound. Here's an excerpt:
The following assumptions are made in are valuation:
Discount factor: 12.6%
(This will reduce towards 10% once the market has been
accessed for Axiron).
Probability that Axiron will reach the market: 90%
Corporate tax rate: 30%
Royalty rate: 20%
Peak sales of US$600 million achieved in 2014
3.5% royalty payment to Monash University
from Acrux earnings
Patent protection out to 2026
(Note that the core penetration enhancer patent expires
in 2017 with patents filed to give protection potentially
out to 2026)
Calculation is on a fully diluted basis, with 166.5 million shares
(Assumes all options will be exercised and raising
approximately $8 million

Seems to me that ACR is only going to head north. We will be adding to the portfolio. Enjoy!