Does anyone know what the fundamentals say the share value for GBG might be in based on today's news?
Based on a full year's production some back of the envelope calculations I've done show:-
In 2009 - Mungada project will have approx 3Mtpa shipped in 2009 at say $60 per tonne (Iron Ore increases due between now & then) gives earnings of $180Mill. If there are 505Mill shares on issue (I think that's the number after the latest deal) then $180Mill / 505Mill = EPS 0.356. Applying a conservative PE of 8 gives me a share price of $2.85.
In 2010 - I think Mungada will to ramp to 4Mtpa so at the same price of $60 per tonne this gives earnings of $240Mill. Add in Karara's startup 8Mtpa X $60 X 50% (due to the JV) = another $240Mill. So total earnings in 2010 of $480Mill / say 650Mill shares (by then) = EPS $0.738. Apply the same low PE of 8 gives a share price of $5.90.
Then add in Lodestone.
Easy to see a share price of $9-$10 from here.
GBG Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
