look , iin order to get a realistic valuation we definately need...

look , iin order to get a realistic valuation we definately need to assume long term prices of thermal at say 100/tonne (currently circa $130 , and thermal ill go with 150/tonne (currently circa 250/tonne). I really dont think thermal prices will ever fall below 100 bucks a tonne unless theres another mass financial crises - even todays thermal prices are pricing in a worldwide slowdown and recession in the euro zone and no growth in the US.

the CAP RAISING PRICE for the development of mine and construction CAPEX will be THE most important factor! At what price will they do the mass cap raising?? Or will it be done in 2 seperate tranches or more??? The HIGHER the price the better !

Dingo West wont require much CAPEX at all! So its a definate goer to get some decent cash flows in. With circa 50mill from dingo west, theyll have decent enuff cash flows to be able to BORROW from the banks if they go it alone

Also 11mtpa wont be the rate of production long term- theyll definatley increase that rate as theyve expressed interest in latter rounds of WICET up to 16mt or more capacity

Dingo West prod can also be increased

Base case im looking at $2.00-$2.50 valuation just for dingo west and SpringCreek, but you never know - - they may be SMART and firstly put dingo west in2 production and then WAIT till markets and sentiment start improving strongly on commodities and THEN strike and do a cap raising at much higher price levels!

I think the BEST scenario is to put dingo west in2 production - - that way thatll get the share price up in a big big way....THEN they can do a cap raising for Springsure Creek. If they do a cap raising say $1.50 or higher, the issued share capital will be smaller and thus EPS will be higher , and thus the valuation rises accordingly.

Base case and being very conservative i see $2.00-$2.50, but the valuation can easily get to $3.00 or more if cap raising can be done at higher levels than the assumed $1.20

Lets not forget that not too long ago, this share was NEAR $3!!!!!!

Also Gallilee obviously has been assigned NO VALUE in my model! If they sell Gallillee for say 200mill or more, then well have to raise markedly less capital!!! Or borrow much less. Also if they get a JV partner 50/50, that might be the easiest option as there may not be ANY DILUTION at all and the share capital stays as is more or less.

$2.00-$2.50 is conservative and a scenario where they go it alone and raise equity at depressed prices.