Shareholder SOA Information Session Feedback, page-41

CTP Shareholders

ABC News 25 Nov 2016

Gives some appreciation of the ceiling for East Coast GSA's as we go forward.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-...port-lng-is-australia-about-to-import/8055164

• "There's a reasonable chance AGL may well find it is cheaper to import gas from any number of low-cost producers in the Middle East, Asia or the US rather than tap into supplies under its feet. AGL, who along with Origin Energy supplies around three-quarters of domestic east-coast gas, has looked ahead and is more than a bit worried."

• "So what is the break even point where it is cheaper to import LNG than use what is already here? UBS analyst Nik Burns has crunched the numbers and suspects it is around $11 per gigajoule (GJ). Currently AGL is said to be paying the Gippsland JV around $7.50/GJ but the asking price is expected to be well above $10/GJ come the next round of contract negotiations."

• "Macquarie's utility team has also had a look at the numbers and found there is "some attraction" for AGL in importing gas.

• "The (FSRU) infrastructure cost over ten years, assuming the facility was used at 75 per cent of capacity, is around $0.20/GJ.

• Combined with the cost of rental and conversion, the cost of a re-gas facility is around $0.75/GJ," Macquarie said in a recent research note."Such a cost is materially cheaper than the cost of shipping gas from Wallumbilla to Victoria or NSW at around $2/GJ."

This article points to the reality we are dealing with a team at Macquarie that have a pretty sophisticated understanding of the gas market.

By comparison the Scheme Booklet simply takes haulage cost straight off the standard APSA website. I would have expected the report to show that  CTP team have done their homework a lot better than that.

Big holes in the report... too much emphasis on share price graphs and not enough solid background information... the lack of supporting information on the CTP Field Development plan and Strategy, the large capital requirement to get surface facilities to cope with even modest gas production, the huge Plug and Abandonment/reinstatement (First time mentioned !)  Etc. Etc.

I am sorry but the omissions from the Scheme proposal make it pretty well impossible for Shareholders to come up with a realistic share price.

I was considering attending the Sydney Information session but something tells me that an attempt to get  plausible answers to the overarching questions  at this stage would be pretty futile.

I wouldn't  blame confused shareholders for being understandably cautions and simply voting NO

Best Regards

OGP