IMO, RFE is simply misunderstood. Too many negative posts about the lack of newsflow and strategy/ direction.
IMO, the "Company Interview. Outlook for Strategy, Capex & Production" answered a lot of the naysayers questions over high development/ capital spending and funding issues but shareholders/ hotcopper posters just chose not to listen and simply ignored what was said. In fact, if you read some of the past analyst reports carefully, some of them already explained these points as well.
The Mississippi Lime play is sometimes referred to as a water management play rather than an oil play by some because of the immense amount of upfront capital/ infrastructure required to manage/ dispose of the excessive amounts of water that arise from drilling through the lime. Even Sandridge Energy, the largest player in the Mississippian had to go through the same process before any meaningful production was achieved. RFE is simply just going through the same process. Short term pain for long term gain.
Whether or not the ambitious strategy RFE chose works or not ie. to acquire a large position in the Mississippian and borrow considerable sums of money to fund their HBP requirements, will only be known once they start focusing their attention on drilling their core areas and the results they achieve from that. At the moment they are simply drilling wells to hold their acreage.
However based on results Devon have achieved to date as per their latest presentation on 3 February 2014:
DEVON ENERGY
MISSISSIPPIAN WOODFORD TREND
Overview
• Net acreage across trend: 650,000
• Multiple oil-bearing intervals
• September rate: ˜11,000 BOED (>60% since June)
• Operated rig count: 15
• 2013 plans: Drill ˜350 wells
Woodford Oil Shale
• Prospective net acreage: ˜400,000 (100,000 de-risked)
• Risked inventory: 1,000 locations and growing
• Resource play characteristics
• Improving consistency (Q3 30-day IP’s avg. 535 BOED)
• High drilling efficiency (Drilling time: <15 days)
Mississippian Lime
• Best wells to-date: IP’s >1,000 BOED
• Integration of 3D seismic will optimize results
and the fact that RFE's share price has hit a triple bottom low, the probability of the share price rising from here is higher than it continuing to fall IMO especially since PPT has confirmed today that they were one of the buyers in that 15 million cross trade that went through on 4 February 2014.
Who were the sellers you ask? Didn't someone just point out recently the importance of placing stop losses? Well IMO, a lot of shareholders had stop losses and that's your answer. A lot of stop losses were hit and the whole thing fed on itself. That coupled with panic selling and viola... more shares at bargain basement prices for PPT and whoever else that bought on the 4th of Feb.
Anyways, added to my holdings today as I believe the strategy that management have explained on the 17 December 2013 continues to make sense. Will be interesting to see where we go from here.
All the best.
IMO, RFE is simply misunderstood. Too many negative posts about...
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