SAS 0.00% 1.6¢ sky and space company ltd

Shareprice thoughts and a long-term concern

  1. 1 Posts.
    Hi, I've been watching this forum with some interest for a while and have a modest holding in the company. I'll apologise now for what is sure to be a long post...

    I'm incredibly impressed with the SAS team so far. The company has made amazing progress and continues to check off milestone after milestone. They continually exceed expectations and I think the uncertainty about funding is the only thing keeping the shareprice down. Frankly, the bickering about the share price lately has been ridiculous. Yes it is declining in value. Yes this may continue until some questions are answered and yes it may reach 15c but who cares. It sucks for people like myself who bought at a higher price but all we can do is learn and move on. It MIGHT get to 15c but it could also bounce at any time if favorable funding is announced and there are good indications such an announcement will come before the end of the year. In the meantime it would be nice to see less ego stroking and bickering and more productive discussion.

    That said, I do have a concern that's been dogging my thoughts. I thought maybe someone might have some insight into the matter.

    SpaceX have announced they will deploy over 4400 satellites into orbit by 2019 and a number of other companies have similar plans. One of SAS's major advantages is that they are an early mover but this launch is actually the same time as our own. Fortunately it seems like phase one for SpaceX is aimed at the US so SAS will remain ahead in the equitorial race. Now, I know these networks are somewhat different to what SAS has planned. SAS is less focused on fast internet, they are a narrowband service that allows a large number of connections at a relatively low bandwidth. That is to say they are fast enough to transmit audio, text, images and any other small pieces of data and can handle many connections but are not the kind of service that you would use for large file transfers or video streaming.

    My concern is that while SAS technology is a vast improvement on satellite phone connectivity and tracking/relay services these things might become less relevant in a world where internet is globally available. If phones are eventually able to connect to a service such as SpaceX's it could be a blow to SAS. Cheaper satellite calls are well and good but will they be relevant in a world where you can use VOIP at no extra cost to your internet plan?

    Does SAS offer some kind of advantage that I haven't accounted for? Is it perhaps able to handle more connections? Offer lower latency? Connect more easily to existing technology? I've done some research but am struggling to answer these questions. Perhaps someone more knowledgeable will have some kind of insight that might alleviate my concerns.

    One other tidbit I uncovered is that China and oppressive regimes like Myamar ban satellite phones and India requires a special permit to own one. China isn't too relevant to our equatorial plans but I believe India is to be partly covered by the pearls so it is unfortunate such a large population is restricted.

    For the record I still believe SAS will reward investors big time by 2020 but I am less confident about the long term future (2025+) due to the above concerns.
 
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