btw interesting piece from BoAML via zero hedge last week spoke...

btw interesting piece from BoAML via zero hedge last week spoke about nasdaq 10,000 & 10 year UST bond yield of 2% if low inflation rates continue to hold and global growth continues to remain subdued

in that scenario the multiple for high growth rate stocks will shift upward significantly and stocks be repriced with that

i think its a fairly likely scenario because china is very advanced through the 'consumption' phase of the economic cycle - meaning its growth will increasignly come under pressure from debt burden and slowing consumption growth

there's a well known economic chart that talks about roughly 20 year cycles made up of ~10year construction cycle and then a 10year consumption cycle. rinse and repeat

the cycles both end with big economic drop-offs/resets - usually triggered by rising debt and falling growth leading to default cycle

So at this stage 2019-21 looking the likely time for China correction - which would drive global growth negative - given China construction cycle topped out in 2010/11

the cycle used to be driven by US - but its no longer the most important economy to global growth - despite it still being the largest