shares on issue, page-86

Thanks Gus,

8.8% at 25 November is very negative when we are all trying to be positive.

From Reddy's Oct 25 earnings call:

Manoj Garg "Just want to understand about the Fondaparinux like in terms of market share gain and all. Though you have mentioned in your opening comments that the market share are gaining as per your expectations, but there are a couple of Dr. Reddy’s Q2 FY12 Earnings Call Transcript reports which indicate that Apotex has been able to garner a much higher market share than what we as a generic company. Any comments on that"?

G. V. Prasad "Yes, we have started a little slow, but we expect to ramp up over the next few months. Slow ramp-up has been because of, the scale-up of manufacturing as well as configuration of the packaging which initially we had packs which were not completely configured with the demand. So over the next few months, we should catch up.

I seem to recall that we were led to believe that Reddy's was "product ready" pending FDA approval.

Anyway, in Oct 2011, Prasad has essentially told us that the Fonda packs were not completely configured with the demand.

We live in hope that Reddys does catch up over the next few months

What is annoying about the relationship between ACL and Reddy's is the lack of guidance or update regarding this important issue.

We have to wait until Reddy's earnings call in late January and then they will probably still not disclose the key data.

So what will ACL disclose in their Qly activities report to the market? Probably nothing because they have no earnings from Fonda. Yet they have market penetration that hopefully is escalating and should be disclosed to the market regularly.

On current figures of 8.8% ACL gets $4.7m a per quarter. So little chance of any payment at the end of Q2 based on payment in arrears and development costs.

There will need to be some significant upside in market share in Dec/Jan/Feb/March for ACL to get a cheque in June /July.

So declaration of dividends unlikely for some time at least until 4th Q 2012.

Heres hoping the Phase 3 and 2 trials give the market a boost.

Things can only get better

Mulac1