LYC lynas rare earths limited

At first I thought do not comment on this just another article...

  1. 8,490 Posts.
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    At first I thought do not comment on this just another article that looks at good and does not consider what is happing to day. Then looked latter and saw 19 upvotes and 8 GAs. Did any one read this with a critical mind? Or is the attitude its positive so it is true. Based on the price chart it appears to have been Written in September. Now for September NdPe was at US 75 NV Way down from Lynases number of 120 USD NV for Q4 Yet the only mention they make of NdPr price is

    Rare Earth Market prices Are ElevatedThe average China domestic price of NdPr (VAT excluded) increased from US$64.7/kg in June 2021 to US$124.0/kg in June 2022.

    These numbers are correct but very misleading the price of NdPr was 595 RMB WV on September at todays exchange rate that is 76.62 NO VAT YET they imply it is up to 124USD NV. What does this mean for the rest of the article.


    Next absolutly no mention of water problems. These will depress SAR Profits and Revenue even if Q2 achieves Next rates which I doubt. There is a 90 ~120 day delay between street. price and revenue being recognized which is FOB customer dock for Lynas. Even at NEXT rates Q2 will not be good. I can not know for certain what prices will do but based on watching them carefully for over 15 years. (I originally held MCP) I do not see NdPr returning to even 100 USD in the next year or maybe two. That means 2023 SAR will be down from H2 2022 and at best H2 2023 will be down a noticeable % from H2 2022. It might be possible for 2023 AR to be better than 2022. But it will be close.

    The last thing people just do not seem to get Lynas saw its big runup starting in CY 2020 when SP was about 1.25 AUD. At this point many of the international banks and governments were flushing money into the system to stop Recessions. The hot sector at the time was Green stocks. And Lynas went up far more than its Revenue Profits and book value justified. Hot stock surplus money is always a good thing. The hot sector seldom repeat!!! For example in 1999 it was DOT COM. 2008 banks. 2019 Green technology. People are people and it is highly unlikely they will go back to the last hot thing. The combination of money not in the system and Lynas not in a hot sector will not help this stock at all.
 
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(20min delay)
Last
$10.73
Change
0.080(0.75%)
Mkt cap ! $10.03B
Open High Low Value Volume
$10.53 $10.85 $10.43 $51.85M 4.837M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 1248 $10.73
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$10.75 41 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 25/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ?
LYC (ASX) Chart
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