If the CSEM proves that a great resource is potentially buried within those resevoirs, then I guarantee you that Shell will drill it to prove up a resource. If it ends up being sizable (I'm guessing anything like 500m barrels + of 'recoverable' crude), then it WILL get developed.
The question is WHEN not IF.
You all need to remember that the CAPEX they are referring to is for resources that have already been identified and for projects that are at the detailed design/implementation stage. Thats where the billions come into it.
If they were just doing feasibilities and other early-stage scoping, then you won't be spending those sums of money, even if its spread over a large number of projects.
So let me reiterate: If Shell thinks that a great resource is down there, then it would foolish of them to NOT drill it and delineate a resource.
Drilling will cost them PEANUTS in the grand scheme of things, and they WILL do it given that replacement of crude reserves is one of the MOST important metrics for an energy company
The only thing riding on FAR's future S.P is whether a great resource is potentially down there or not.
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