Just to throw my two cents in regarding people opinions that if...

Just to throw my two cents in regarding people opinions that if it was to be a no it would already have happened..

well, having a legal background, it is not unusual to wait until the last day to exercise an option / confirm a condition etc.

The only reason you wouldn't would be because you had pressing time constraints, and that exercising your rights (early) one way or the other would have some benefit to you.

If the answer was to be yes, you generally would wait to exercise the option - who knows 10 better proposals may make their way to Shell's desk after they exercised of which they only have the resources to take up 5 - FAR may then get bumped of the top of the list so to speak. The world could dive into a depression etc..

If the answer was to be no you would wait also! maybe new technology for the interpretation of CSEM data comes out which discovers what you thought was water was in fact oil.

Exercising the option early one way or the other generally will have no benefit. If they want to get the drilling done quicker they will already be organising it.

Just my thoughts.