Gday allI have been mulling over this for a few days, and IMO...

Gday all

I have been mulling over this for a few days, and IMO there is no way Shen will get the votes for the buyout at 35c.

He has signalled his intentions so IMO much higher prices will be seen.

For me, it all centres around McNiel noms.

IMO McNeill would want a lot more than 35c

They have been buying steadily since MES listed.

This is their holding at each calendar year end

2007 - 300k
2008 - 5m
2009 - 7.7m
2010 - 12.7m

And this year I think they have bought around 3m shares in the low 20's. So IMO they could have as much as 15.5m shares by now.

There is no way they have been doing this to accept only 35c

Why is McNiel important?

Well for the deal to go ahead 75% of the non-Shen shareholders need to approve the deal.
This is a vote by just over 53m shareholders.

So to block the deal 13.25m shares need to vote "NO"

So IMO McNeil can block the deal on their own. Not to mention any other shareholders who will vote no.
(I have mentioned I am in the top 20 and I will be voting "NO")

I can understand Shen may have contacted some of the other larger shareholders to try and get the deal done. But McNiel Noms have the ability to block the deal on their own and seek a much higher price.

If I know it. They know it. And McNeil Noms would be absolutely friggin stupid to not use their position to obtain a much higher price from Shen.

If I were them. I wouldnt be settling for anything under $1.00

Interesting times