It's impossible to put a fair price on gold.  I had a target...

It's impossible to put a fair price on gold.  I had a target $1370 by first week in Feb (based on observing its past performance - not the most realisable I know).  It didn't make it (yet) and I'm not in the habit of holding gold much longer than 4 months. 

It seems to react differently to similar market conditions at different times.  A game of chess and bluff, no clear pattern.  Due to that thinking I act on gut feeling, I'm not super confident it has run its course for now and acknowledge it could easily get to 1360-70 but I see it at a 55/45 in favour of close top of its range - traders getting buyers excited ready for the usual big sell-off.  That is why just a small short for now, I'm prepared to be wrong by 40 before closing it.  Worse case scenario is I've reduced the long profit by 10%, best case scenario is I'm close to correct and can start adding to the short.

Due to its erratic trading behaviour I'm not convinced it will be the safe haven some think in the event of another broad market downturn, equally I can't see its momentum continuing if markets carry on north.  There is no compelling reason to hold gold indefinitely.