Mike
- I agree there's no messiah coming to SGH or doubling of the price of iron ore type chance here.
- Not so easy way cut costs UK without redundancies which will create cash outflows.
- The warranties from WTG have not been publicly disclosed, except in some vague verbiage, as you have pointed out, and there's been no mention at all of even possible claim yet. So very doubtful.
- I very much doubt your sustainable EBITDA estimate for non-legal part SGS (I think it is likely a breakeven proposition with supposed synergy into more 'profitable' legal work) and not so easy to sell it quickly (though it is a theoretical possibility).
The elephant in the room is that professional service firms don't withstand big reputational hits, eyeballs of debt and austerity. Because talent/clients so mobile. Australian business underperformed H1 - how much of that due to these issues already, and much worse news since. Any firm would be deep trouble, but even worse here as Slaters Australia mostly comprises recent acquisitions. I haven't seen anyone address this issue. Newbies @SGH or crusted longs just saying things like "will do a deal with banks" or "must be able to get to cashflow positive" as investment case, forgetting the elephant.
As far as banks go, SGH now on weekly cashflow reporting to banks. If shareholders disgusted by the misleading and constant shocks of unexpected bad news over last 6 months, how do you think the lenders feel?
SGH Price at posting:
34.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held