The only new news since I last posted @SGH is removal from ASX200, and this was a slight surprise. Though this news barely matters because so few insto holdings left.
The HC threads have gone mostly downhill. Mix left now of the most crusted-on delusional longs, newbies with no idea (think it's a gold mine!), and a few wise old former longs and other skeptics trying keep things honest.
Nobody has posted here I have seen who understands professional service firms and law firms in particular and what inevitably happens these kind situations: talent/clients exit. And the chaotic dynamic here with >60% Australian revenue recently acquired businesses with people no loyalty.
Nobody posting here who understands industry stats NIHL settlements in UK and how far out-of-line is the extraordinary 30-40% expectation for SGS. So far 3%. These are already mature cases they've been running. Insurers in UK are rebuking this poor portfolio of cases and should continue to do so.
So many (almost all, except newbies) mistrust SGH management now. Rightly so, what is there to trust? But what on earth reason is there be overweight a stock where you mistrust management? One would never invest in it now, unless misinformed. So why hold overweight?
UBS on way out but still have ~15m shares to sell. Shorts going down due to lack of available borrow, and lack of pips left to make worth effort except as target practice.
Who is buying? The very muggiest of retail mugs, who think they've stumbled a bargain. Good Lord. Broker data includes short covering of course.
There was a fantastic opportunity to exit this week in low 40s - grabbed by some but missed by many. Was hoping my friends
@monkeypig and
@denbo might have grabbed it. Full disclosure: got a trivial amount new shorts set on Monday.
This is going lower. Still estimating to simplify math:
70% chance 0
20% 20c
10% $1.
(20min delay)