Hi Idle, I make it ship #7, as the recent Q report advised a planned fourth shipment for the March quarter was delayed until early April. That is the ???? ship I have in my table below. So in addition to Liberty, I calculate they need 4 more ships to hit target, and that is the rate they're currently operating at.
The Q report also advised they shipped 62.8% ore last quarter and they are heading to 65% towards the middle of the year. That means we can use the 62% grade price as a guide for revenue. To date, the average 62% price for April 1 to May 27 as shown on
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp is $142.78 (65% is $166.99) with average exchange rate around 72c. Assuming the last 4 shipments occur and the price remains constant, I am calculating
operational EBITDA of ~$100M for the quarter. Ongoing capital investment costs will need to be deducted from that, but hopefully they are starting to wind down with the completion of the overburden stripping, the hanging wall stabilisation and the plant upgrade. We should also be able to start offsetting this taxable revenue against the accumulated expenditure of ~$330M over the past two years (thumbsuck estimate drawn from decrease in cash held). Bottom line, things are looking much better than this time last year!
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