MikeMennell I see Calibre's announcement on previous guidance was 19 Feb, 7 and half weeks before the downgrade, and their results roadshow presentation was lodged on 6 March almost 6 weeks before the downgrade. Not sure whweree you get 3 weeks from? Anyway, the point is what scares me is it is looking a tad bleak out there across the board, check out the below news on mining services, and the talk of total capitulation and panic in the DJ report below (RBS Morgan comments), as the resources rout continue today. When will it stop? Anyone?? Boart is down almost 40% since Calibre's announcement and they haven't announced anything on earnings yet.
Downward pressure on miners 2013-04-17 17:53:04.86 GMT
The stocks of mining services groups in Australia are being dragged down by reduced earnings forecasts as resources companies defer new projects due to commodities price falls. Ausdrill on 17 April 2013 issued a warning that its 2012-13 second-half profit would be $A96m at best, rather than the previously forecast $A112m. At the Emeco machinery leasing group the full-year post-tax profit estimate has been scaled back from $A47m to as little as $A40m. Others to suffer setbacks are Calibre, Leighton Holdings, Boart Longyear and Imdex; Original article by Tim Binsted and Jenny Wiggins; The Australian Financial Review; 18 April 2013; page 23
Mining sector Rout; 0532 GMT [Dow Jones] Australian resources stocks have fallen a lot more than the overnight declines in commodity prices, leading traders to view the rout in resources as the kind of capitulation event that occurs near major bottoms in shares prices. "The resources sector is becoming irrational, with indiscriminate selling, regardless of fundamentals," says RBS Morgans investment adviser Christopher Macdonald. "That's leading to an oversold situation that's so far out of line with reality that this sell-off will probably run its course in a couple of days." He says potential triggers for a bounce could be a reserve ratio cut from China or another interest rate cut and Long Term Refinancing Operation from the ECB. Among diversified miners, BHP (BHP.AU) and Rio Tinto (RIO.AU) are down more than 4%, while in iron ore pure plays, Fortescue (FMG.AU) has dived 6.6% and Atlas (AGO.AU) is down 10%. In the gold sector, Newcrest (NCM.AU) is down 6% after hitting its lowest point since June 2006. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 is down 1.4% at 4934.5, on track for its biggest fall in 4 weeks. Traders also point out that analysts continue to capitulate on their bullish recommendations, with Bell Potter taking BHP and RIO off its "High Conviction Buy List" today.
CGH Price at posting:
38.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
