To be blunt, I think I haven't got much more to add than the post of the other night duplicated here in italics below. But based on the Ann they are saying they did not expect it to work on lettuce which has been discussed previously so not sure what you are on about here btw. Secondly, lets get to those lab tomato trials, now why would they not work in a hydroponics environment and what other fruits/vegetables it does work on but obviously the element of doubt raised in the Ann - what are your thoughts there?.
The problem of the latest announcement IMO is it has i.) installed uncertainty, ii.) obviously looks like a longer timeframe to development for OHD and iii.) gives that added emphasis now that GPP needs to prioritise its focus on one or two projects. If anything, by years end what I would be hoping from GPP is that it progresses its various projects I discussed in Post #:
25336665 to a certain stage, and depending on how feasible they are because some could be duds, then sell/farm out/close/or become a minority SH in some projects to fund/focus resources on one or two projects (or earlier I possible).
Whilst I don't think FA has changed, TA has changed IMO has and am not sure what will happen in the short term and no point guessing but the PFS will be a key in what direction it goes. Next week will also be interesting in whether GPP is also sold off for end of year tax losses as there would be some holding this stock who would certainly be in losses IMO. So to have a guess probably further negativity in TA prior to PFS.
All above IMO including my email of Thursday night below. Have a good weekend all. For the record I try to provide balance in my posts - I certainly see some negatives and positives here so invest at your own discretion and DYOR a key here.
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From my post on Thursday night: seePost #:
25442052
As I have posted in the past I initially came in for the lithium but saw the OHD project becoming a project with greater potential that Morabisi, particularly in relation to hydroponics sector. This morning I posted the following post at 9.50am , and that was my only post, see Post #: 25422510 and I ended the post with the following in italics:
Not sure how the market will respond but expect it to be positive. Obviously did not end positive today.
Why I stated not sure how the market would be respond is because:
1. The rocket trials, whilst confirming what GPP felt, certainly put an element of doubt into the market that it doesn't work for all crop types.
2. The next critical point was the concept that the control was still using some base fertiliser product such as NPK, and that OHD was an addition to that so as to increase fertiliser uptake and thus lead to the higher growth rates. Understanding what is meant by 'untreated control' a critical concept. That is any confusion before around what was the control, now created a new confusion been what does OHD actually replace noting most investors do not have significant knowledge of the difference between biostimulants and fertilisers, with fertilisers then been broken down to base fertilisers in the control (which will remain under cropping/horticultural scenarios) and additional fertilisers which is what OHD is seeking to replace been additional fertilisers IMO (think seasol, what you might see at Bunnings) etc. That is the perspective of 1/10th to 3/10th of the cost relates to products that are applied in addition to some base fertiliser product. On that basis 21% didn't look like a big number but it is certainly a large number IMO btw, but I doubt it is well understood by the market but point 1 is the uncertainty point. In addition, it also now brings into play just how big the numbers are in the wheat trials and tomato trials, now that an understanding of what the control actually was.
3. However counteracting point 2 above, was the comment in the Ann that additional horticultural trials will continue, and not to mention the field trials for wheat won't be undertaken to later this year/early next year etc. This certainly would provide the market a view that the road to commercialisation is a little longer than first thought based on the interpretations based on previous Anns (it has certainly for me pushed timelines slightly back now so need to see what the new hydroponic trials bring up as hydroponics is IMO what can bring some revenue in before wheat/broad acre trials conclude and any uptake arises). My perspective on that has changed as well - I think the road is slightly longer but still feel the pilot plant, if OHD is a goer, will still be designed to be specked so that additional units can be added to turn the pilot into a commercial plant, if OHD is feasible, but those units will now have a slightly longer timeframe than I first thought (and by slightly I am talking anything up to a year after the pilot comes into production - that is my definition of delay).
4. Because there was no JV announcement/interest of JV comment i as part of the announcement, and no mention of JVs, the confusion in the Ann itself plus the likelihood of a longer timeframe I think is what caused today. Those wanting instant rewards and/or had a shorter timeframe on commercialisation goals simply bailed. daytraders certainly left the building IMO. I guess it boils down now who bought that excess stock.
5. The key will now be the PFS and what is the road to commercialisation if OHD is a goer. The PFS needs to be delivered on schedule. As I said previously a pilot plant can be scaled and scoped so additional units can be added, but the initial pilot plant could accomodate a significant land area, buts this would be dependent on spray cycles which I posted about a few days back to. On this issue, I note the regular spraying of OHD by the looks of it - once a week in the trials in the Ann - so in terms of cost would need to understand the regular spraying cycle of the products which OHD seeks to take market share from to do a cost comparison, but also regular spraying means the pilot plant has a reduced land area in application size but counteracting that is that the best results were based on 5 litres per hectare which increases coverage so not sure the outcome on my previous maths so might need to sit down and think about that.
As I said the PFS a key now and/or what is thought Morabisi holds. The other key is how potash fits into OHD. Clearly IMO the Ann indicates a slightly longer timeline to commercialisation of OHD is a goer, assuming it is feasible, and provides a little bit more uncertainty. After thinking about the issue today and tonight I am slightly less positive on OHD timeframe to commercialisation than I was a few days ago, and to that end Morabisi's importance to GPP rises a little further IMO. In other words whilst FA appears still solid TA has taken a hit today so won't give any tips on what it might do in the next few weeks but the important thing is now the PFS
As I said I first came here for lithium, so all the above is IMO and my take on todays events. That is my take on things so if others have a view please share. Tomorrow is another day, the golfing greens will still be flat and the VB will still remain cold.
All the above is IMO
