50ftcat,
You are right. The probability is not scientific. Not proving anything. Just some measure of risk. If the market do fall by another 25%, CMR would be wiped out (I think). In this situation I lose everything.
In this market is all about risk, and risk can be measured in terms of probability. Anyway, do not forget money mgt. Stop loss is crucial. Will get out at 24c if market reached that level.
