i think a big part of the short question that I cant answer is...

i think a big part of the short question that I cant answer is ;

who are the parties shorting PNV and why they went into that position to start with. an article was written up analysing Regals short position on PNV. They went short and thr stock price rocketed. the article goes into say if Regal held their short position it wouod take another 18 months or so for them to be proven right (hardly what you would consider the correct call) but then they were in the money. but since then the share price has risen above 1.50. i believe off top of head the article was written when SP was 1.25, and it stated that over a 2.5 year period regal would be up 20% on their position took several years ago, not taking into any account the opportunity cost had they made a smarter choice with another stock.

polynovos revenue is rising; in the peak of covid they kept growing. so a growing revenue base has been resilent to the worse epidemic in 100 years, based on total deaths; which speaks to the resilience of thr ongoing rising population and the demand this puts on healthcare.
on average with a globally rising popularion there will be more wounds as older people injure themselves more and dont recover as quickly or at all in the case of chronic wounds. this aging population is the world over
diabetes type 2 is exploding globally across every country, mostly due to the rusing issue of untreated obesity;92% of type 2 diabetics are overweight or obese (2/3 of australians are in this category based on BMI)
obesity also causes reduced circulation and increased co morbidities. in developed countries obesity strikes down the lower socioeconomic groups more; and in poorer nations it strikes the rich and affluent as obesity is seen as a status symbol in these poor countiees. unfortunately obesity and diabetes strikes people regardless of affluence.
growing population will lead to increased burns and invreased injuries in line with the growing population. hospitals are tasked with shrinking budgets and treating more people with less. enter Polynovo, have thr price of integra and gives better results. thats a no brainer for hospitals who can treat more people for less cost to the same or better outcome.

pnv does face competition and any company making good profits we see emergence of new threats until there is just the right number of companies competing and they can still make normal opeating profits. PNV at this stage doesnt have to reduce its prices; it can actually increase them a little as it becomes mire known and the gold std of treatment. if you have the best product it commands a premium

A SWOT Analysis; strengths are superior technology; pricing; well referenced by doctors globally; proven on the battle field with the likes of war and volcano eruptions; they own the supply chain with their manufacturing and can ramp up with demand as required; strong mgmt team; strong sales staff delivering 60-80% YoY based on last quarter, thats at least double growth rate of Integra
Weaknesses for me would be ; lack of direct sales team in europe and other places relying on a distribution network that has not met expectations to date. some falfged bad culture in Melbourne and the unexpected exit of Paul Brennaan whose leadership grew the business very successfully. the patented tech has a 20 year copyright i believe; and the growing capabilities in 3d printing in hospitals from everything to polymers, adhesives and titanium bones means every major hospital may at some point be able to produce some kind of biodegradable wound covering.
another weakness is polynovo i dont believe are yet delivering capabilties such as slow release of oxygen as their dressing breaks down . also slow approvals like FDA will slow the progress pf novosorb onto into treatments (but also affrcts their competitiors the same way)
opportunity is relatively untapped market large TAM, scratching surface with how Novosorb can be applied. growing salez team is an opportunity to expand . the new CEO is also an opportunity to place someone more focused on achieving growth in new markets noe they have a proven commercial product. the us is a particualrly big opportunity. opportunity to expand into new products too, like the pancreas replacement, or hernia product; or diabetic and chronic wounds. etc

sorry for ramble
but im confident we will get a 13+ million quarter. i think 14+ since March was a 4 million month and the company on average is growing month on month and quarter on quarter and Q4 is their biggest quarter in the year traditionally

if the company delivers 50-60% yoy growth when last annual report that was 35% how is the shorts going to be able to downplay that. thats _ surge of 15-25% from the years prior growth signalling the worst of covid is well and truly over. with the US delivering 80% of total sales last quarter and growing 80% yoy its very hard if this is maintained for PNV annual growth not to at some point rise to 80% yoy and higher.
i cant find any other medical company growing at those rates with this revenue.

the risk is their balance sheet and a cap raise. if they cant maintain pisitive cashflow they may need to taise capital at a diluted ahareprice. but thats the biggest financial risl of shareholder dilution imho. and we are about to see what position they are in. if they can maintain or grow cash balance while continuing to rapidly grow sales staff and sales they will be fine and shareholder wealth protected. ultimately DW wouldnt care too much if you or I loose 100 k if they do a cap raise, but that would affect us greatly. the hogh margin product lends itself to a scalable model; hire more reps and sales and profits outpace rising costs significantly.

if the shorts are well funded there is nothing stopping them assuming they have hundreds of millions in acailable surplus funds to keep their short position and weather it out, and perhaps in 3-5 years PNV shareprice will plummet again? but that wouod involve them locking up over 100 million in funds that could be delivering better return elsewhere on a rising shareprice. this quarter and next quarter will be catalysts to say the company has turned a corner and growing rapidly again. the new ceo whenever they join will give confidence they have strong execution and stratgic planning taken care of.

the force is strong in this one