In my opinion, the only thing keeping the MSF share price up at the moment is the prospect of a successful takeover of Tully Sugar. The high sugar price at the moment is just background noise.
The more I look at the history of announcements, and peel back the layers on MSF's accounts it seems to me that the "desperation" by MSF executives to engage with Tully is more about the survival of MSF than the benefits to both groups of shareholders in a merger/takeover transaction. On my investigations it seems highly unlikely that Tully shareholders would accept the present offer which is scip only. It is also unlikely that a bidder's statement from MSF would withstand scrutiny given the optimistic accounting treament and valuations on its assets. The bidders statement is released will go someone to outline the fragile state of MSF's balance sheet.
In my opinion therefore the MSF price will fall as the market realises the bind that they are in... hence my short disposition.
Hope that explains.
Therefore,
MSF Price at posting:
$2.25 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
