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john risk

2,687 Posts.

1

19/09/14

14:00

Post #: 14000660
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Originally posted by thorburn ↑

jr as I posted in the pst this is probably the trade of the decade.

The yield has moved up and stayed up for about two weeks. It really all depends on your belief that rates will rise in the US.

They will, the FED says it will be moving them up ~mid next year. yields will and are rising beforehand. Zero rate policy has kept rates down artificially for five years in the US.

Interest rates from here on might move up slowly but to get the most out of the trade you'd have to get in before 2.7% and allow that they may fall back for a while.

I can't see a better trade around the traps at the moment.

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Your reasoning is sound, I just never thought interest rates would go negative in,some countries, after being blindsided by that, I can't put down big money, but you may be right about the trade of the decade
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