I wanted to gauge the sentiment and who else was thinking on my level. Maybe I am wrong here but you must ask the questions.
On the fines. They are $17m per breach with 54,372 breaches and are rather prescriptive. It doesn't matter in the law what about was made or transacted, it matters that AML is in place. For instance, Rivkin made $2,500 inside trading Qantas but was sentenced to a lengthy jail term.
The banks have been riding on hubris and arrogance about AML in Australia compared to their peers overseas. The reason is nobody has had a multibillion dollar fine in Australia and the overseas banks have had plenty. US$180bn in fact with average being US$1.9bn.
Maybe a $2bn fine is able to be handled with a small cut to dividend or a capital raise. It is after all a one-off, well we hope they don't do it again.
My question is why doesn't everyone else see this or flippantly dismiss it. Why are Australian banks immune to regulatory fines that overseas banks have to pay up?
Anyway in my mind when this happens, not if. There will be a 5-10% downside swing on the price.
Maybe this Friday it is a small one or nothing at all. Maybe an overseas regulator jumps on the bandwagon and announces it is doing a separate investigation.
I would strongly recommend that everybody should spend 20-30mins reading the Austrac statement of claim in the federal court. This can't be ignored or brushed aside.
CBA Price at posting:
$80.30 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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