Short CBA into Austrac response, page-199

CBA appears to be getting the full barrels in terms of brokers not liking CBA for one reason or another.

Problems could be but not be limited to:
1. Bad behavior - Australian banks are good at finding landmines from money laundering to anti-trust violations to responsible lending misdemeanours, frauds and scam, incurring wrath of regulators with billions of dollars of fines
2. Rate reductions - these could reduce the CBA SP as NIM falls further, a major problem for CBA as largest bricks and mortar lender. If the RBA reduces rates further in 2025, further reducing NIM and stronger wage settlements keeping inflation high, that will prevent aggressive rate cutting.
3. Loan losses - will the benign bad debt trend continue?
4. Tech tribulations - Australian banks including CBA are often facing legacy system problems, with accounts frozen, tech outages, and an Information Commissioner on the warpath with larger fines in the offing for system outages.
5. A housing downturn - If Australian banks were not so beholden to mortgages and bricks and mortar, this would not be a concern but likely curbs on immigration and housing stock inventories increasing, the pullback in house prices has already begun. CBA's home ground of Sydney is by some accounts, the most expensive real estate market in the world with sales constantly above $3 million AUD in decent suburbs of the main Australian city. Growth in such a heated market might not be sustainable into 2025.