scooterI take a fairly long-term view of markets, so I look for...

scooter

I take a fairly long-term view of markets, so I look for a Lower High and Lower Low to absolutely confirm a trend change.

I wouldn't consider the July/August pullback a trend change in my timeframe - it was a short correction. The trend change ocurred in the week commencing 21/12/07 when a Lower High had been formed the week before and then the XJO dropped below 6312.6 (which had been the Low of the leg down from the 02/11/07 to the 23/11/07 candles.) On 11/01/08 XJO on the weekly closed below the 52 ema which absolutely confirmed the trend change.

If you want to avoid those sharp pullbacks such as July/August 2007 you could try using a Donchian Channel system on the daily - perhaps a 15 day lookback. (I have a Metastock formula to add Donchian to your charts if you use M/S.)

Donchian Channels suggest you consider a trend to have changed or a range breakout has occured when the security trades below it's 15 day Low (in the example we are taking about.) The reverse is also true - a range breakout would be indicated by a trade above the 15 day highest high. The number of look-back days will determine the sensitivity of the signal. If swing trading, I tend to use 15 days for XJO. I don't use it for initiating trades - it's just another tool to help identify the trend.

Others may have better ideas...