Hi ausheds,
Looking at the following REE supply / demand chart, you can see world consumption is going up by ~20ktpa, so providing Molycorp doesn't come online for a while, I'd expect the extra supply provided by Lynas will not impact the basket price. However, once Molycorp is online, I think the CeO and LaO contributions to the basket price will be minimal as they'll be in oversupply and a $40 basket price is definitely on the cards:
http://www.gwmg.ca/html/about_rare_earth_elements/key_stistics/index.cfm
However, I think what's really going to save Lynas is the Duncan deposit with all its HREE which won't go into oversupply for the foreseeable future:
http://www.mining.com/2012/06/19/the-only-five-rare-earth-elements-that-matter-jack-lifton/
short interest peer perspective, page-17
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