Short/medium term outlook, page-10

Rose ...
"yes ,because the upside in RMS is greater than the other two" ??? Why does RMS have a fundamentally higher upside no matter how much money it will make? Are circular argument my friend? I talked about a fundamental reason outside of their valuation on cash generation. What upside do you use for RMS and EVN and NST. What valuations do you have for them? If you show those figures then why do you allow RMS a higher upside than it's ability to generate a profit over the next 3 years as they themselves forecast?


Esh...
I read about the WA government royalty increase, (they also cut minimum production allowance) although as I read it is not decided it faces a potentially rocky push into legislation. I think it is about $20 extra on AISC, so will hit to the tune of $2M on each 100koz, significant, but likely to be balanced by the AUD movement so I don't think it will end up influencing gold infrastructure investment as the goldies argue. Looking at the large cash holdings of most WA goldies it seems to me cash and income is not what is holding back new investment, but lack of opportunities. You are not going to like me saying this but any impact on producers will be asymmetrical against lower margin and WA exclusive miners ... like RMS. Explorers and developers pre finance more strongly hit as I think the surprise here adds to the regulatory uncertainty.

Tax payment is a reasonable consideration most people overlook I guess. You sell for a profit even after discounting 50% for holding over 12 months, the amount you pay in tax is a significant amount of shares you can not purchase again and thus even if the new shares earn 5% more you may be better holding your full investment in the old stock. Is that what you mean?

I guess it depends on your tax situation (which is easier than Finland I expect), I am torn selling my SBM shares now, given their forecast for lower production first 2 quarters, and the significant director selling ... Trouble is I bought them at absolute rock bottom so 1700% gain and basicly will lose 34% of their value on tax, or something like $5000o less for my next share purchase. You can calculate roughly I would need any new investment to do about 50% better. However, selling any shares with a loss (BLK for me and some very old CVN) generates a capital loss event to offset against so I could sell some SBM without tax, I need to do some more math to see if it is worth it. SBM forecast to make an awful load of cash this year...