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16/11/21
08:59
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Originally posted by Bone1005:
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It went to $14 off the back of rumours of a Nasdaq listing. It was on a steady decline from that point. Klarna rumours assisted with some more gains but it then fell back into decline. The sell off was due to management not addressing it properly but instead saying only believe things that are released by them. The Major retrace started after Larry lent his shares out for the delta hedging of the convertible notes however, the convertible notes was necessary for global expansion. After seeing two cap raises in the space of 6 months I was cautious, "does this mean there will be another capital raise soon" is still plaguing investors. Peter gray said after the last report released they had $400m in the bank to play with still. IF that's true then they are cash flow positive because they haven't "burnt" through all the money from the convertible notes. On the delta hedging you'll see lots of algo trading as notes holders trying to hedge their risk by keeping the delta neutral between the underlying asset and the option. Will that change when Larry gets his shares back, not sure but for them to continue to delta hedge until expiry they will need to borrow from someone else. Why did Larry lend his shares out, one reason may be to not dilute shareholders further especially after they only just did a cap raise a few months prior. Why did they issue shares instead of just paying for Twisto and Spotti? Cash is king and if they act on what they disclosed in the investor presentations then they will truly be a very innovative and competitive company. However, if they take any longer to do those ideas Commbank may beat them to it...These ideas cost money so i'd prefer to be diluted IF they put the money to innovative products. On the other hand Twisto and Spotti took an all Scrip payment, if they weren't confident in the company wouldn't you negotiate a pure cash buy out? Now we are down at this lower level around $7-8 and inflation fears and interest rate hikes are talked about freely and some are worried about the implications on zip. Creating further downward pressure on the shareprice. The highest level of inflation in approx 30 years was just recorded in the US and that saw the sell off from 7 to mid to high 5s. If shorting wasn't an issue what was JP Morgan doing for the past few weeks? When asked about interest rate rises and how that will effect zip, Peter said it isn't a concern that they have secured low cost debt and have put themselves in a good position to tackle the interest rate rises. The inflation that is grappling the world Citi has claimed will peak in February and then begin to decline. Lets wait and see what happens come Feb and reevaluate then. One thing is they need to focus on their core markets now and build strength first before expanding further but if they are trying to onboard a global merchant they will need to be Global. They have a better idea than you or I about their financials and plans, you can either bet that they will do well or short them. I've messaged Larry Previously with my thoughts, time will tell if he responds or does any of it.
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I agree with all of this. thank you for a solid post. it may have been madness for me to sell, and I hope for existing holders it goes to the moon. But for me, I have my other winners and I think the markets are a ticking time bomb, so I like to stay green for as long as I can before it turns. shortsighted maybe but make money when there’s money to be made, long or short. good luck