short rallies, page-12

re: dwek short rallies Hey forty,

Don't mind having a guess at the future myself and like you can admit when I get it wrong. First things first. I am a fan of aussie gold producers not so much physical gold. Agree with you on your points there.

have a look at 1980 gold chart. Gold peaked early in the year at 850. crashed down to around 500 and recovered to 600-700 range for the rest of the year. so if history is a guide and you are right in that we are past the peak we may still enjoy a long period of relatively high pog.

in this country where we are blessed with natural resources and political stability we have a number of exciting projects working towards production at breakneck speed. I myself am a big BDG fan. even if you are right BDG can still make P!sspots full of money(to quote our CEO) at current or near current POG. that's the worst case if you are right.

But are you right ? 1980 was significant because the US was in debt after a protacted war in vietnam. today it is the middle east causing the debt. It took a few years after the war for the chickens to come home to roost. Why? same reason as today. The US worked overtime to stop everything going pear shaped but in time the had to pay the ferryman.

I believe the economic model that markets move in 30 year cycles. After the 1980 gold peak we enjoyed 20 years of Bull markets but by 2000 we were 5 years overdue for a longterm bear which are now in. I would count on another 5-10 bad years for the US and the USD. In the meantime i say enjoy the gold ride.

we will see who is write and I promise to admit if I get it wrong


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