It is interesting to look at the figures for BDR alongside those of NST. The SP of NST has also been hammered recently, just like BDR.
Share price - BDR 54c., NST $1.78 (as at 15/08/2014)
Share price - BDR 33c., NST $1.23 (as at 17/10/2014)
% Change - BDR - down 38.8%, NST - down 30.90%
Shares o'standing - BDR 798.6M, NST 592.2M
Annual Dividend - BDR - nil, NST - 3.5c fully franked
Cash on hand - BDR - $22.89M, NST - $82.38M
Total debt - BDR - $84M, NST (as at 28/08/2014) - $50M
Gold production annual run rate (rough estimates) - BDR - 120-180k oz, NST - 550-600k oz
Costs AISC (rough estimates) - BDR - A$1150, NST - A$1050. Company projections in each case are for AISC figures to be lower at next quarterly production report and trending down.
On the basis of the above (and acknowledging that some of the figures are best guesses) then the sales revenue for the 2014-15 year on a per share basis is likely to be around 21-32c for BDR, and $1.30 - $1.40 for NST.
Using these figures then BDR should be trading at a SP around 20-22% of that for NST, and possibly a little lower because of debt and cash levels. The SP of BDR is presently 26% of that for NST.
This could suggest that there is more downside for BDR and that possibly NST has been oversold.
I know some of these calculations are very simplistic, however, having done the exercise for my own needs, I thought I would share them with other HC posters.
I have been following BDR and considering buying in, but have yet to do so. I am not a current BDR holder at present (I do hold NST), and have now decided to sit on the sidelines. The two companies have very similar profiles, however, I see considerably more potential with NST. The shorters are unfortunately playing havoc with both these stocks.
Please feel free to put me straight on the figures if I have erred in my estimates or calculations.
DYOR carefully
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