I just want to warn you retail shorters, I can't see how you can win in the short term here. Let's assume you are completely right and long run APT's model just isn't feasible or profitable. I STILL think you are going to get burnt in the short term. What sort of crazy person would short a company that has massively growing users, take-up and extreme network effects. Momentum on this thing is crazy. This is the one that could wreck you, again, even if you are 100% right long term. Like Keynes said, the market can stay wrong much longer than you can stay solvent. And the market freakin LOVES this stock. Institutions are pouring in, retail investors are pouring in, users continue to grow at massive rates, google searches are growing, new stores are growing, the thing is launching in bloody new countries, the platform is even becoming a net referrer to businesses. The name is a bloody verb in Australia! The share price will remain bouyant for some time yet even if this thing is Enron. In fact it would be like shorting Enron during 1999 or 2000 when it was exploding. Come 2002 you could tell everyone how right you were over a dinner, that you'd have to ask them to pay for...
If this thing is a dog, it won't start woofing for at least 12 months. Any talk of current profits is irrelevant to the current share price. The market simply doesn't care, this isn't a mature company, FY18 results weren't even at 50% of the revenue that it will be in FY20 at current conservative run-rates. If you wanted to short this, you'd have to be betting on a slowdown in growth of revenue, through slowdown in customer numbers and new store growth. I think there's a real chance of this happening maybe even later this year, but not now.
The best short plays on the ASX in recent times have not looked anything like this. And this is all assuming the thing is a dog, and there's bloody good reason to assume that it isn't! Watch out!
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