New opinion by UBS: 12 months target: A$ 0.13 (down from 0.31)...

New opinion by UBS: 12 months target: A$ 0.13 (down from 0.31)

We downgrade our rating on Intrepid to Neutral from Buy based on valuation. The
decision to stage the future work program at Kitumba has caused us to review our
resource multiple used in our valuation down from 6¢/lb to 3¢/lb. We believe the
project is now at risk of missing the potential development window that we originally
envisaged. We also believe that the cash currently held by the company should be held​

for future potential opportunities and not used to buy-back Intrepid shares.

Upside scenario
Higher copper prices are likely to lead investors to price in a greater likelihood of the project going ahead. With the DFS expected in late 2015, we could see opex or capex come down, as the PFS was put forward at a time of higher capital intensity and inflation. If we reduce just our opex 10% our NPV would lift by ~127% to A$0.41/sh.

Downside scenario
Should copper prices trend down or the DFS fail to return a positive study, the share price will likely trade at a discount to the 1 year forward cash backing position. We estimate this to be ~A$0.10/sh.

My conclusion: downside scenario almots priced in. Wait, see and hope.​